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Prediction for CME (2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-03T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27562/-1
CME Note: Large complex-shaped (possibly partial halo) to the north. Source is likely the eruption of a very long filament stretching from N42E15 to N01W60 seen in AIA 193/304/131. The filament is centered very approximately around N30W30. The eruption was likely associated with the corresponding long duration C3.2-class flare peaking at 2023-11-03T06:17Z. Arrival signature: a sharp temporary jump in total magnetic field to 44 nT at 2023-11-05T11:45Z, up from the already elevated 20 nT after CME arrival four hours prior) accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 520 km/s; ion density remains high after the previous arrival in the morning. The arrival is followed by a bout of negative Bz with values close to -20 nT. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27611/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T11:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T18:25Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-11-03 09:47
 - Time at C2: 2023-11-03 05:48
 - Radial speed: 796.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: N32E03
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 644.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-11-05 18:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 60.63 hours)
Lead Time: 34.33 hour(s)
Difference: -6.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-11-04T01:25Z
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